2 Introduction
This will be a different type of post than I normally write. Most of the posts on this blog relate to fish and aquatic sciences and are not sports-related, but I thoroughly enjoy playing and watching sports, especially baseball.
Growing up I played second base or shortstop and have fond memories of my dad, younger brother, and myself sitting around our tiny TV watching the greats of the 1990s and 2000s. Every October, we chat about the postseason baseball and the thrill that it is. I could go on and on about my love for the sport, especially the postseason, but let’s get to the point of this post.
3 MLB 2024 Postseason
The 2024 postseason has been spectacular. There have been so many great stories and games, and it has really been a treat to watch. On top of that, we have the two best teams this year, the Yankees and Dodgers, in the World Series. Both teams hav some of the best players in the league and yet people are mad and upset by this. Why?
Sure it is nice to have an underdog to root for or teams that do not often make it, like my Minnesota Twins, but at the same time how cool is to have two juggernauts who haven’t played each other in over 40 years face off in the World Series! On top of that, the only thing that would make this World Series even more exciting, would be if Ohtani were pitching!
With this being said, there has been a lot of talk about can a team buy a World Series, especially since these two teams often have high payrolls and whether that is a good or bad thing.
With this question in hand, everyone’s favourite baseball guy, Jimmy aka Jomboy, set to the task of answering just that. He put out this great video on Talkin’ Baseball. In the video he showed the two teams that made it to the World Series each year starting in 1989 and ending in 2024, their result (i.e, won or lost), and their market ranking for that year. The market ranking is from 1 to 30, with 1 being the most amount of money spent. He did this in a table which was great, however, as a scientist and someone who loves looking at visualizations, I figured I could visualize this information to complement this video and the story Jimmy is providing. So let’s visualize this data!
4 Market Ranking of World Series Teams
Below are a few interactive visualizations of the raw market ranking for the winning and losing teams across years. The higher we go on the y-axis (i.e, the vertical axis) the better market rank (i.e., the more money a team spent). I have added a dotted line at the market rank of 10 (i.e, ) and a solid line at the market rank of 15 (i.e., 1/2).
4.1 Market Ranking for Winning Teams
For the first visualization, I have emphasized the market ranking for winning teams. Let’s take a look!
We can see there are 5 years that the winning team had a market ranking that was between 15 and 30. This means that they won without spending that much money relative to the rest of the teams.
There is, however, improved success in winning a World Series if a team has a market ranking that is between 1 and 10. This can also be viewed as being a team in the top one-third of payrolls that year.
4.2 Market Ranking for Losing Teams
For the second visualization, I have emphasized the market ranking for loosing teams. Let’s take a look!
We can see there are 8 years that the losing team had a market ranking that was between 15 and 30. This means that although they lost, they made it to the World Series without spending that much money relative to the rest of the teams.
There is, however, improved success in making it to a World series if a team has a market ranking that is between 1 and 10. This can also be viewed as being a team in the top one-third of payrolls that year.
5 Conclusion
Can you buy a World Series? - Somewhat.
Spending more money on players absolutely improves the ability of a team to make it to the World Series and gives them a better chance of winning, but it doesn’t guarantee that they will.
So should we be mad about the Yankees and Dodgers being in the World Series. No, we are going to see some amazing baseball or so I hope!
Enjoy the World Series everyone!
6 Bonus - Statistical Modelling
I often use statistical models to help answer questions about fish and aquatic ecosystems. So I’m going to apply the same approach here.
I have used a type of statistical model called a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to look at the general trends over the past 30+ years.
Again, the general trend is that a team needs to spend money if they hope to win a World Series.
Do they need to spend the most money? No, not necessarily.
I hope you enjoyed this little analysis!